145 GW
Capacity
85.8 GW
2025 Peak
27M+
Customers
$33B
TX-STEP Plan
Providers
Layers

Legend

Oncor
CenterPoint
AEP Texas
TNMP
Lubbock P&L
Non-ERCOT
Critical Risk
High Risk
Moderate Risk
Overloaded Line
Near Capacity
Transmission
STEP Planned
Pop. Density
›

Grid Risk — 2025

⚠ DFW — North Central

Bell East–Salado 345kV strained. ~3,000 MW winter import gap. Data center surge driving new peak highs.

Critical · Winter

⚠ Houston — Gulf Coast

Cat-5 scenario: 153 outages modeled. 345kV substations at flood risk. 2.4M customers exposed.

Critical · Hurricane

⚡ Austin — South Central

Knob Creek–Salado import constraint. 5,000 MW above summer baseline. TNMP growth accelerating.

High · Winter + Growth

💨 West TX — Permian

Renewable congestion at max. No major lines since CREZ 2013. 3–5 yr interconnection delays.

High · Congestion

🌬 Panhandle Wind Zone

25+ GW wind with limited export. Curtailment rising. Topology optimization active.

Moderate · Curtailment

Key Metrics

2025 Summer Peak85,759 MW
2030 Demand Target~150 GW
TX-STEP Cost$33 Billion
New 765kV Lines2,468 mi
Backlogged Projects2,500+
Uri Winter Deficit~10 GW
Weatherized Sites2,222
Population at Risk (Cat-5)~7M

Population vs. Risk

DFW metro (Oncor)7.8M · Critical
Houston metro (CenterPoint)7.3M · Critical
Austin metro (TNMP/AE)2.4M · High
San Antonio (CPS)2.7M · Moderate
West TX (AEP)600K · High
Panhandle350K · Moderate

Base Power Targets

🎯 DFW (Oncor) — Primary

Highest demand density + risk = highest demand-response ROI per customer.

7.8M people

🎯 TNMP Suburbs — Growth

Cedar Park, Hutto, Taylor. Fastest residential growth. Smart-meter ready.

~265K + growing

📊 Houston — TAM

Post-hurricane resilience demand. Customers seeking alternatives. Large TAM.

7.3M people